Hurricane update - 19 January

Tropical cyclone Funa is currently hurtling south from the tropics towards New Zealand at a rate of 25 mph. Funa is going to transform into a non-tropical depression, but quite a vigorous one. The depression is not expected to make landfall on New Zealand itself, but its effects will be felt right across the country. I copy the latest Severe Weather Outlook from Met New Zealand. The next update will be issued within 6 hours of this post. Do not forget that New Zealand is 12 hours ahead of GMT and 17 hours ahead of EST.

A deep depression, ex Tropical Cyclone Funa, is forecast to move from the tropics and lie northwest of the North Island by midday Monday. Strong, very moist northeasterlies are expected to spread over northern New Zealand during Monday, bringing rain to the northern half of the North Island. Heavy falls are likely from Northland down through Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, with a moderate risk of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria. There is also a low risk that northeast winds could rise to severe gale about exposed parts of Northland on Monday.

The depression is expected to continue to move southwards during Tuesday and cross the South Island during the afternoon or evening. Rain is likely to spread over much of the country during this time, especially central regions. There is a risk of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria over many areas, as per the chart, and most especially about the ranges of Nelson and the South Island West Coast. Strong winds are also expected close to the depression, with a risk of severe northerly gales around Taranaki and Cook Strait early Tuesday and possible severe west to northwest gales over many eastern areas from Hawkes Bay down to Southland later on Tuesday and Wednesday, as per the chart.

There is still some uncertainty about the intensity and track of this depression as it crosses the South Island on Tuesday and people are advised to remain up to date with the latest forecasts as the situation evolves.

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